The economy was stuck in a
stagflationary quagmire, with high inflation and stagnant growth.
经济陷入了滞胀的困境，通货膨胀高企且增长停滞。
The combination of rising unemployment and soaring prices is a textbook case of
stagflation.
失业率上升和物价飙升是典型的滞胀情况。
The oil crisis of the 1970s triggered a global
stagflation that lasted for years." (1970年代的石油危机引发了全球范围的长期滞胀。
Economists debate whether the current economic situation is better described as recession or
stagflation.
经济学家们争论当前的经济状况更适合描述为衰退还是滞胀。
The government's fiscal policies were blamed for exacerbating the
stagflation problem.
政府的财政政策被认为加剧了滞胀问题。
In
stagflation, traditional monetary policies may prove ineffective in curbing inflation while stimulating growth.
在滞胀期间，传统的货币政策可能在抑制通胀的同时无法有效刺激经济增长。
The company struggled to maintain profitability amidst
stagflation, as both costs and demand remained unpredictable.
公司在滞胀环境下努力维持盈利能力，因为成本和需求都难以预测。
The central bank faced the challenging task of balancing interest rate hikes to combat inflation without triggering a recession or worsening
stagflation.
中央银行面临着艰巨的任务，需要在对抗通胀的同时上调利率，而不引发衰退或使滞胀恶化。
Some analysts predict that the ongoing trade war could lead to
stagflation in affected economies.
一些分析人士预测，持续的贸易战可能导致受影响经济体出现滞胀。
During the
stagflation period, workers demanded higher wages to cope with inflation, further fueling the cycle.
在滞胀时期，工人们要求提高工资以应对通胀，这进一步加剧了这种循环。
Amid rising risks of stagflation worldwide, Zhang said, "the stable economic growth in China would continue to play an important role for the recovery and growth of the world economy. "
张说，在全球滞胀风险不断上升的情况下，“中国经济的稳定增长将继续对世界经济的复苏和增长发挥重要作用。”
In fact, market economies have been witness to various transitions — from pre-capitalist laissez-faire policies to Keynesian stimulus measures during the 1929-39 Great Depression, followed by post-war socialist welfare programs, active monetary policies during periods of severe inflation, and the emergence of supply-side measures during times of stagflation, emphasizing tax cuts and reforms.
For example, amid the global stagflation, China has cost advantages brought about by its large-scale manufacturing sector, which is one solution to stagflation.
Looking at the three major economies around the world, the US economy is moving from stagflation to mild recession, the European economy is moving from recession to deep recession, and China's economy is bottoming out to mild recovery.
To begin with, the economies of the US and Europe have slipped into stagflation, a combination of recession accompanied by high and rising inflation, which is a key factor behind China's sharp decline in exports.
More efforts are therefore still needed to consolidate the foundation of China's economic growth, NBS head Kang said, given the stagflation risk facing the world economy and the lingering pressures facing the domestic job market and the operation of enterprises.
To sustain inclusive global development despite the mounting challenges of geopolitical tensions, stagflation risks and rising debts, experts underlined the necessity to maintain the rules-based trading regime and amplify the role of multilateral and regional cooperation mechanisms.
Apart from the fact that external demand will continue to slow under the impact of global stagflation next year, more importantly, downward pressure is still there weighing on the economy, resulting in shocks to the market and expectations.
Over the past year, due to the impact of extremely loose global liquidity and supply chain bottlenecks, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine woes, global inflation levels have continued to rise, reaching the highest level in nearly 40 years and becoming the most severe round of stagflation since the 1970s.
Compared to the 1970s, the current round of global stagflation involves a large number of countries, with the major developed countries represented by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development experiencing varying degrees of stagflation.
Among them, the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Russia have the most significant stagflation.
The main factors contributing to the current round of global stagflation patterns are as follows.
The current round of global stagflation has been affected by geopolitical turmoil, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has deeply affected global trade, investment, technology and talent exchanges.
In particular, the rise in commodity prices brought about by the conflict has further worsened the global stagflation situation.
Unlike major developed countries experiencing different levels of stagflation, China's economic growth has slowed, but the inflation level is relatively moderate.
In summary, the global economy has experienced a stagflation crisis, and China's economy is recovering slowly.
The history of economic development shows that the painful effect of stagflation is very significant.
It requires the joint efforts of all countries to emerge from the economic recession caused by stagflation.
Fok: China continues to support the world economy with advanced manufacturing even as countries around the world are struggling to move from stagflation to reflation cycles.
After the shocks, stagflation follows, which is the most critical issue awaiting solutions.
Fu Linghui, spokesman for the NBS, said that although China's economy faced pressures and challenges amid rising global stagflation risks, renewed domestic COVID-19 cases and extreme weather like heavy rains and high temperatures, the recovery continued in July, showcasing the resilience of the economy.
The NBS warned of rising global stagflation risks, saying the foundation of the recovery is not solid and more efforts are still needed.
Ma Bin, executive deputy president of the association, said Chinese SMEs currently face more pressure and difficulties as the impact of domestic resurgences of COVID-19 lingers and exacerbates shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, while uncertainties in global markets also grow due to factors such as the pandemic, geopolitical issues and increasing concerns over stagflation in the global economy.
The currency depreciation in these major economies has brought stagflation and downside risks, said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Science's economic policy committee.
"As stagflation pressures and debt risks cloud growth prospects, the attractiveness of the eurozone to global investors has dimmed, with the euro sinking below parity against the US dollar for the first time in 20 years, roiling financial markets last week as a result.
In recent days, as stagflation pressure and debt risks clouded growth prospects, the attractiveness of the eurozone for global investors has weakened, with the euro down to parity against the dollar last week for the first time in 20 years.
Amid increasing stagflation risks across the globe, the world's major economics tended to tighten their fiscal and monetary policies.
The risk of global economic stagflation is rising.
High inflation lowers people's living standards, weakens corporate vitality, overshadows prospects of economic growth, intensifies social tensions and raises concerns about the possibility of global stagflation.
The global economy is on track to grow by 2.9 percent in 2022, down 1.2 percentage points from January projection, the World Bank Group said in its latest Global Economic Prospects released on Tuesday, warning of stagflation risk.
"I don't think the Chinese economy is facing stagflation," Kang added, stating that consumer inflation has remained mild while the spike in industrial goods prices has started to soften with the recovering supply of electricity and commodities.
Issues like pandemic-related uncertainties, rising debt, stagflation concerns and impeded globalization have all combined to darken the growth prospects of emerging markets.
Many emerging markets have sunk into stagflation, Wang said, as their central banks had to tighten policy stance to curb inflation and potential capital flight, which risks pulling the plug on economic recovery that is already slippery due to difficulties in vaccination.
Yet, there has been some pessimism around the outlook for the Chinese economy and some even worried that there is a rising risk of stagflation in the world's second-largest economy, given the rising costs and lower growth.
The global economy last year experienced a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, while since March this year, the world has faced with the danger of both inflation and stagflation.
The slowdown can be attributed to transitory factors including heavy rainfall, the biggest wave of domestic COVID-19 cases since the initial outbreak and restrictions on power use and industrial production, as well as longer-term issues like elevated commodity prices amid global stagflation concerns.
With these negative shocks to supplies, stagflation may make the US monetary policy space even more constrained.
At present, China and the US substantially increasing tariff exclusions will help reduce costs within the global supply chain, thereby accelerating relief from stagflation pressure, which will also be an important beginning for the formation of positive interaction between the two countries.
Externally, the United States Federal Reserve, the US central bank, has already adjusted its monetary policy, and the risk for global stagflation may rise, according to some projections.
Argentina's economy is plagued by a shortage of dollar reserves amid drastic local currency depreciation due to severe stagflation.
"In an environment of global stagflation, China's supply advantages are expected to stand out in terms of product prices, supply chain costs and enterprises' bargaining power.
Economists define stagflation as an economic cycle marked by slow growth, a high unemployment rate and inflation.
The endogenous growth momentum and the resilience of the Chinese economy have helped the renminbi to remain largely stable, thus adding to the attractiveness of renminbi assets at a time of rising global volatility complicated by stagflation worldwide and the tightening monetary policies of the United States Federal Reserve, said Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International.
Expectations of further US Federal Reserve tightening combined with rising risks of stagflation in the eurozone have pushed the greenback to a 20-year high.
They include COVID-19 resurgences, disposal of financial risks, slowdown in economic recovery, aggressive tightening overseas, global economic stagflation, international financial volatility and geopolitical tensions.
Such measures to boost domestic consumption and investment have become imperative, as the country's export growth could weaken due to global stagflation risks and as domestic demand has been dampened by recent COVID-19 outbreaks, with declines in retail sales and property development investment, they added.
Chinese equities may stand out amid potential global market jitters caused by stagflation risks, thanks to lower inflationary pressures in the nation, supportive macroeconomic policies and reasonable market valuations, global asset managers said.
Stagflation risks could weigh on stock assets by eroding corporate earnings and dampening valuation levels.
Chinese equities, however, seem to be better equipped to withstand the potential shock of stagflation than many peers, they said.
Underpinning their assertion has been China's overall mild consumer inflation and accommodative policy stance that could send its economy to a new up-cycle this year, meaning China faces a lower risk of stagflation than many other economies.
"Although stagflation will be detrimental to all risk assets, we think Chinese equities are better positioned," said Zhou Ping, Neuberger Berman's director of quant investment in China.
"Reasonable valuations after recent market corrections also provide Chinese equities with a buffer against potential stagflation risks, experts said.
"Current valuations have priced in negative factors such as global central banks' tightening and risks of stagflation," said Meng Lei, China strategist at UBS Securities.
"Though global stagflation risks are unlikely to hammer the whole asset class of Chinese equities, experts said the risks could still have some structural impacts.
Contemporary analysis of monetary policies essentially began with economists trying to understand the US stagflation of the late 1970s.
By the end of the 1970s, stagflation was the primary concern of macroeconomists and a central political issue.
On the contrary, it may lead to higher inflation or stagflation, Yi said in his article.
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